FICS SurveyBot September 2011

A few years ago, I published the FICS SurveyBot results comparing FICS Standard ratings with USCF ratings.

Last year when I jumped into OTB by playing at the US Class Championships, I had to enter the "Unrated Division".  I came out with a 2nd place result and about a 1200 rating.  I then played in another OTB and my rating jumped up over 1400.  So I was curious about what to expect playing in the Class C division this year.  At least according to FICS SurveyBot, I'm in the division I should be in.  I'm sitting at 1434 USCF and 1630 on FICS.  So I think the SurveyBot (in my case) is in the ballpark.

And this is about right for my expectations.  Three things could happen for me this weekend:
1) I blow through the field and go 5-0; in which case that'd would be wonderful.  Odds: pretty low.
2) I am somewhere in the middle ... 2.5-2.5, maybe worse, maybe better.  This is what I'm anticipating.  Odds: fairly high.
3) I turf it big time and fail to win a single game.  This would be a blow to the 'ol ego and it would be a bit surprising.  Odds: somewhat likely (yikes!)  I played a 1400 rated player back in June and it was a slog-fest.  I won, but it was a really hard-fought win.  I could end up with 4 or 5 losses that are decided by a pawn.

My overall approach to this weekend is just to have fun.  I didn't do any post-game skittles room analysis last year, but I hope to this year.  So if I lose, I plan on really picking the other guy's brain and even try to get some tips for improvement.

UPDATE: September 30, 2011
: FICS USCF
: ---------
: 1220  982
: 1240 1004
: 1260 1026
: 1280 1048
: 1300 1070
: 1320 1093
: 1340 1115
: 1360 1138
: 1380 1161
: 1400 1183
: 1420 1206
: 1440 1230
: 1460 1253
: 1480 1276
: 1500 1300
: 1520 1323
: 1540 1347
: 1560 1371
: 1580 1395
: 1600 1419 <<---
: 1620 1443 <<---
: 1640 1467 <<---
: 1660 1491
: 1680 1516
: 1700 1540
: 1720 1565
: 1740 1590
: 1760 1615
: 1780 1640
: 1800 1665
: 1820 1690
: 1840 1715
: 1860 1740
: 1880 1766
: 1900 1791
: 1920 1817
: 1940 1843
: 1960 1869
: 1980 1895
: 2000 1921
: 2020 1947
: 2040 1973
: 2060 1999
: 2080 2026
: 2100 2052
: 2120 2079
: 2140 2105
: 2160 2132
: 2180 2159
: 2200 2186
: 2220 2213
: 2240 2240
: 2260 2267
: 2280 2294
: 2300 2322
: 2320 2349
: 2340 2377
: 2360 2404
: 2380 2432
: 2400 2460

SurveyBot(TD): A list of the estimated USCF ratings has been displayed above. The 257 submitted USCF ratings fit the best power curve given by formula USCF=a*FICS^b, a>0, where a=0.06364782, b=1.35707831 and coefficient of determination r^2=0.517.

Biggest Rating Jump in One Problem

Granted my RD was around 46 at the time of the problem, but even still, when my RD has been this high before, I've never had a big of a jump as this one!

Now if I can just consistent avoid losing to the 1500 and 1600 rated problems!

What's the biggest rating jump you've had at ChessTempo?

By the way, it was problem #78276.

RHP Update

I stopped playing at RedHotPawn about a year ago, but then I picked it back up a few months ago.  I've won another game there just today.

On White's 20th move (where the game begins below), it got interesting.  He planted his knight deep in my territory, but I managed to scrape out a lead by taking out his supporting pawns and then exchange my bishop for his rook.  From there, we did some posturing, but I finally was able to sweep up some pawns and he resigned.

So now I'm 64-19-2 with a rating of 1635 at RHP.  I have 4 current games going right now.

It's been a while since I played my last G/90 game.  Life has been busy and the last two weeks I had higher priorities early Saturday morning.  But I'm thinking next Saturday morning I should be able to get another game in.  I'm looking forward to the 5 G/120 games coming up in a couple of weeks at the US Class Championships!

Chess Player Look-a-Likes: Svetushkin-Crow

Dmitry Svetushkin and Russell Crowe ... maybe?

Sharp Eyes

A good friend of mine took some pictures of our family earlier this year.

He took a few of me and my boys playing around on the chess board.

He posted one of them on his artistic photo-feed.  Click here to see the full photo.

Chess Merit Badge

I'm an Eagle Scout ... so when I saw this in the news, I got a little excited.  Although, I was surprised the chess merit badge had not already been available.  My son, who is in Cub Scouts, earned his chess belt-loop and pin.

The requirements seem fairly comprehensive and they address all the key aspects of the game ... not only do they address the rules, but they delve into strategy, tactics, playing, problem solving and even running a tournament.

The first couple of the requirements also get into chess history, etiquette and describing the benefits of chess.

Maybe the local troop will let me be the merit badge counselor!

Game 3 of 52

I finally pulled off my first victory in this march to 52.  I tried fishing for a game early on last night on FICS ... I trolled channel 90 for a bit asking for any takers, but there were none.  So I stayed up and watched the TCU at Baylor game (what a game!) and then decided to sleep in.  I worked it out so I could have 3 hours to myself in the afternoon.  So I had 1:00pm to 4:00pm blocked off.  I tried fishing for a G/90 game again on FICS, but there were still no takers.

So I fired up Chessmaster again.  I couldn't play Seb ... the highest rated player it would let me play was Hayden (1282).  Fifty moves later I had won.  Unfortunately, the Hayden personality wasn't so keen.  You know when the computer makes a seemingly dumb move like just giving up a pawn or exchanging a bishop for pawn?  Well, that is what it was like playing this personality.  I would have thought it would've played a bit tougher.  Seb was like 1300 or something ... anyway.

The cool part about playing from 1-4pm on a Saturday was being able to watch all the college football while playing chess.  Maybe that doesn't exactly help me make the best moves, but it was fun.

I'm on game 20 in Logical Chess - still enjoying that.  I should be done with the project around the end of October now.  I'm averaging about 3 pages a day now.

This 3-day weekend should be fun ... I should have lots of time to do tactics and play some blitz.  I'm for sure going to the LHCC Tuesday night.  I also need to renew my USCF membership and sign up for the US Class Championships scheduled in about a month.