FICS SurveyBot September 2011

A few years ago, I published the FICS SurveyBot results comparing FICS Standard ratings with USCF ratings.

Last year when I jumped into OTB by playing at the US Class Championships, I had to enter the "Unrated Division".  I came out with a 2nd place result and about a 1200 rating.  I then played in another OTB and my rating jumped up over 1400.  So I was curious about what to expect playing in the Class C division this year.  At least according to FICS SurveyBot, I'm in the division I should be in.  I'm sitting at 1434 USCF and 1630 on FICS.  So I think the SurveyBot (in my case) is in the ballpark.

And this is about right for my expectations.  Three things could happen for me this weekend:
1) I blow through the field and go 5-0; in which case that'd would be wonderful.  Odds: pretty low.
2) I am somewhere in the middle ... 2.5-2.5, maybe worse, maybe better.  This is what I'm anticipating.  Odds: fairly high.
3) I turf it big time and fail to win a single game.  This would be a blow to the 'ol ego and it would be a bit surprising.  Odds: somewhat likely (yikes!)  I played a 1400 rated player back in June and it was a slog-fest.  I won, but it was a really hard-fought win.  I could end up with 4 or 5 losses that are decided by a pawn.

My overall approach to this weekend is just to have fun.  I didn't do any post-game skittles room analysis last year, but I hope to this year.  So if I lose, I plan on really picking the other guy's brain and even try to get some tips for improvement.

UPDATE: September 30, 2011
: FICS USCF
: ---------
: 1220  982
: 1240 1004
: 1260 1026
: 1280 1048
: 1300 1070
: 1320 1093
: 1340 1115
: 1360 1138
: 1380 1161
: 1400 1183
: 1420 1206
: 1440 1230
: 1460 1253
: 1480 1276
: 1500 1300
: 1520 1323
: 1540 1347
: 1560 1371
: 1580 1395
: 1600 1419 <<---
: 1620 1443 <<---
: 1640 1467 <<---
: 1660 1491
: 1680 1516
: 1700 1540
: 1720 1565
: 1740 1590
: 1760 1615
: 1780 1640
: 1800 1665
: 1820 1690
: 1840 1715
: 1860 1740
: 1880 1766
: 1900 1791
: 1920 1817
: 1940 1843
: 1960 1869
: 1980 1895
: 2000 1921
: 2020 1947
: 2040 1973
: 2060 1999
: 2080 2026
: 2100 2052
: 2120 2079
: 2140 2105
: 2160 2132
: 2180 2159
: 2200 2186
: 2220 2213
: 2240 2240
: 2260 2267
: 2280 2294
: 2300 2322
: 2320 2349
: 2340 2377
: 2360 2404
: 2380 2432
: 2400 2460

SurveyBot(TD): A list of the estimated USCF ratings has been displayed above. The 257 submitted USCF ratings fit the best power curve given by formula USCF=a*FICS^b, a>0, where a=0.06364782, b=1.35707831 and coefficient of determination r^2=0.517.